It’s Thanksgiving week, one of America’s favorite times to gather, travel to be with family, eat, and shop. For those of us who follow retail trends, consumer behavior, site selection, or commercial real estate, this holiday filled with tradition is also an interesting time to look at how consumers think, move, and spend. Thanksgiving and the days surrounding it offer early clues about how the holiday season and early 2026 may unfold.
We took a look at current, publicly available data to give our readers a fun, insightful overview of the classics (turkey and potatoes) and the modern (AI-assisted menu planning and record mobile shopping). Read on for some intriguing 2025 Thanksgiving trends.
What’s Happening With America’s Turkeys This Year?
Turkeys may be the most predictable part of Thanksgiving. Organizations like the American Farm Bureau Federation and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, among others, are forecasting a few changes in 2025, but nothing that should disrupt this beloved tradition. Here’s what their recent reports say:
- This year saw a dip in U.S. turkey production. USDA’s 2025 report shares that U.S. growers are expected to raise around 195 million turkeys this year, about a 3% decline from 2024. It’s the smallest flock in decades, but supply remains more than sufficient for Thanksgiving tables. The American Farm Bureau Federation (Farm Bureau) says that Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and Avian Metapneumovirus (AMPV) are largely to blame, which have contributed to the conservative production outlook.
- Americans still plan to enjoy plenty of turkey. The National Turkey Federation notes that 94% of Americans say they’ll celebrate Thanksgiving this year, and roughly 30 million turkeys are expected to be served.
- Prices have moved up, but promotions will help. The Farm Bureau also shares that wholesale frozen whole hens are trending around $1.32 per pound—higher than last year—but major grocers usually offer competitive discounts this time of year.
Despite these changes, Americans can expect a traditional turkey day, complete with plenty of side dishes!
What Consumers Are Planning for Thanksgiving 2025
NielsenIQ’s 2025 Thanksgiving consumer outlook offers a fascinating look at how Americans think about their celebrations. Even as economic conditions shift, Thanksgiving remains a feel-good holiday rooted in tradition, home cooking, and togetherness.
- Celebration remains nearly universal – An estimated 92% of U.S. consumers plan to celebrate Thanksgiving in some way.
- Home cooking is still the dominant choice – 88% say they’ll enjoy a home-cooked meal, while only about 4% plan to dine out.
- Many households are spending a bit more – Around 42% of consumers—especially higher-income households—say they’ll spend more than last year, while others are staying budget-aware.
- Private label remains a hero of the holiday table – 25% of shoppers expect to buy more private-label goods this season, and 31% say they’ll intentionally choose store brands over national brands for Thanksgiving staples.
- Social and digital influence keeps growing – 13% of consumers expect to use Instagram, TikTok, or YouTube to help plan menus or recipes.
AI is officially part of Thanksgiving planning
It probably won’t surprise you that this year’s Thanksgiving prep helper is ChatGPT. About 16% of consumers plan to use AI tools this year for shopping lists, recipes, or wine pairings, and another 18% are considering it.
Thanksgiving remains deeply traditional, but technology and value-oriented shopping are becoming part of the ritual.
The Start of Holiday Shopping: Cyber Week by the Numbers
Adobe Digital Insights is predicting a strong online holiday season. The shift continues toward mobile devices, flexible payment tools, and data-driven shopping:
- Holiday online consumer spending is expected to top $250 billion. Adobe forecasts $253.4 billion in U.S. online spend for November–December, up 5.3% from 2024.
- Cyber Week alone is projected to bring in $43.7 billion. That’s a 6.3% year-over-year increase. Thanksgiving Day online sales should hit about $6.4 billion.
- Mobile shopping is clearly the preferred method. More than 56% of online purchases are expected to happen on mobile devices—another record.
- ‘Buy now, pay later’ keeps gaining traction. Buy Now, Pay Later spending should reach $20.2 billion this holiday season. Adobe also expects about 79% of such purchases will come from mobile devices.
- Air travel remains strong. Roughly 6 million Americans will fly for Thanksgiving, with the busiest days expected on the Tuesday and Wednesday before the holiday.
- Popular destinations highlight warmer-weather metros. Orlando, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Atlanta top the list for holiday getaways.
This movement shapes foot traffic patterns across retail categories, from gas-and-convenience to airport concessions, outlet centers, and restaurants near major travel corridors.
What the Trends Suggest
Thanksgiving 2025 blends tradition with new consumer behaviors. Americans are cooking at home, embracing private-label products, traveling in record numbers, shopping on mobile, and experimenting with AI tools to look up their recipes.
For retailers, hospitality businesses, grocery chains, and commercial real estate professionals, Thanksgiving provides a preview of how consumers will make value-driven choices, where mobility patterns will peak, how digital behavior will influence in-store experiences, which retail categories may see a holiday lift, how tech-assisted planning and purchasing will continue to evolve, and much more.
Thanksgiving has always been about family, food, and gratitude. This year, it also tells an interesting story about how Americans are spending, exploring, and celebrating. And as we head into the final stretch of 2025, it’s a hopeful, high-energy start to the season.
